On the afternoon of August 20, the meteorological and hydrological agency warned that a tropical depression was moving toward the Gulf of Tonkin and could strengthen into a storm with maximum sustained winds of level 8 (62–74 km/h) and gusts reaching level 10 (89–102 km/h).
At 1:00 p.m. on August 20, the storm was centered over northern Hainan Island at 19.5 degrees North latitude and 109.9 degrees East longitude, packing maximum sustained winds of level 6 (39–49 km/h) with gusts up to level 8. It continues moving west at a speed of 5 to 10 km/h.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the tropical depression is expected to enter the Gulf of Tonkin around the morning of August 21 and may strengthen into a storm. By 1 p.m. on August 21, the storm’s center is forecast to be at approximately 19.8 degrees North latitude and 108.5 degrees East longitude, over the waters off the eastern part of the Gulf of Tonkin, with maximum sustained winds at level 8 and gusts reaching level 10. It is expected to move mainly west-northwestward at 5-10 km/h.
As it churns over the northern Gulf of Tonkin at 1 p.m., August 22, the storm is expected to slow significantly to 3–5 km/h and downgrade back to a tropical depression, with sustained winds dropping to level 7 (50–61 km/h) and gusts to level 9 (75–88 km/h).
Meteorological authorities are tracking two key potential outcomes:
- Scenario 1 (Most likely—60–70 percent chance): The system slowly intensifies into a level 8 typhoon upon entering the gulf, turns northward to make landfall along the East Sea coast, and rapidly weakens. Under this track, heavy rainfall will resume in the Northern region on August 21, primarily impacting Northeastern provinces such as Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang, and Hung Yen.
- Scenario 2 (Extreme scenario - 30–40 percent chance): The typhoon continues a slow westward trek, striking the southern Red River Delta before weakening inland. This trajectory presents a heightened flood risk, threatening northeastern provinces with severe downpours lasting from August 22 to August 25.
