El Nino has reached a very strong intensity and will cause rainfall deficits during the final months of the year in the South Central Coastal region, the Central Highlands, and the Southern region, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting on the evening of September 21.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, El Nino has reached a very strong intensity six times since 1950. Most recently, during the 2015-2016 period, severe droughts and water shortages occurred in many provinces and cities across the South Central Coastal region, the Central Highlands, and the Southern region.
From now through the end of 2026, El Nino is forecast to maintain a very strong intensity and will likely reach its peak. During the early months of 2027, the phenomenon is highly likely to remain at a very strong intensity, though both its probability and strength are expected to gradually diminish.
This El Nino event will impact Vietnam's weather during the final months of 2026 and early 2027. The number of storms and tropical depressions over the East Sea, as well as those affecting the Vietnamese mainland, from now until the end of 2026 is likely to be lower than the multi-year average.
During the 2026-2027 winter, cold air surges tend to be weaker than normal. Severe cold spells are expected to appear late and occur less frequently compared to the multi-year average.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warned of rainfall deficits from now through the end of 2026, which will be most pronounced in the South Central Coastal provinces, the Central Highlands, and the Southern region. Rainfall in these areas could be 20 percent to 40 percent lower than the multi-year average. The rainy season may also end early.
In the early months of 2027, low rainfall and hot weather conditions are likely to appear early in the Southern provinces, heightening the risk of drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion.
)
)
