It is likely to persist until early summer 2027, the department said.
According to the latest climate update, the probability of El Niño reaching very strong intensity has increased from the previous month's forecast, while the probability of it reaching strong intensity stands at just 2 percent.
From January to March 2027, El Niño is forecast to remain very strong, although the probability may decline compared with the final three months of 2026.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said tropical storm and tropical depression activity over the East Sea is likely to be below the long-term average from October to December. During this period, the long-term average is 4.5 storms or tropical depressions over the East Sea, including 1.9 making landfall.
From January to March 2027, tropical storms and tropical depressions are unlikely to occur over the East Sea.
Under the influence of El Niño, the Southern region could experience hot weather as early as February 2027, earlier than the long-term average. From March 2027, localized hot weather is possible in the Northwest region.
Northern region, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An brace for continued heavy rain
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said on the evening of September 15 that a strong wind convergence system extending from the surface to an altitude of 5,000 meters had brought widespread heavy rain to the northeastern region, southern Lao Cai Province, Son La, Phu Tho, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An.
As of the afternoon of September 15, rainfall exceeding 300mm had been recorded in some areas, including 329mm in Ta Phin, Lao Cai Province, and 338mm in Thanh Son, Phu Tho Province.
The areas are expected to continue experiencing heavy rain during the night of September 15 and throughout September 16.
Hung Yen, Ninh Binh, Hanoi, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, and southern Phu Tho are forecast to receive heavy to extremely heavy rain, with common rainfall totals of 60-120mm and isolated amounts exceeding 200mm. Other areas are expected to receive 40-70mm of rain, with isolated totals above 150mm.
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