With export turnover continuing to rise sharply and far exceeding initial forecasts in 2025, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector is expected to soon record US$10 billion in overseas shipments if the current momentum is sustained and structural weaknesses addressed, experts said.
According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (VINAFRUIT), total export earnings for 2025 are estimated at US$8–8.4 billion, up US$1.3–1.4 billion from 2024, equivalent to growth of 18 percent. This is an impressive achievement amid continued volatility in global trade, indicating the improving competitiveness of Vietnamese farm produce in international markets.
The strong performance stems from a mix of favourable factors. Demand in major markets such as China, the US, the Republic of Korea, Japan and the EU has recovered significantly. At the same time, more Vietnamese fruits have been granted official export access to demanding markets, opening fresh room for growth.
Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of VINAFRUIT, said export expansion in recent years has moved beyond seasonal surges to form a clear upward trend. A stronger focus on quality, traceability and compliance with market standards is helping Vietnamese produce secure a firmer foothold in global supply chains.
China remains the largest export market, accounting for a substantial share of total turnover. However, it also presents the most challenges to the industry, he noted.
Despite a strong rise in export value, shipments to China still face vulnerabilities. While domestic production – consumption links remain fragile, fragmented and small-scale farming driven by short-term market signals is still common. When the market fluctuates or import policies change, the supply chain is exposed to disruption.
Dr Nguyen Dinh Bich, an agricultural economics expert, held that the sector’s biggest weakness lies in production organisation. While growth is rapid, it is not yet firmly rooted. Without stronger linkages from raw-material zones through processing to distribution, the industry will remain vulnerable if major markets tighten standards or amend regulations.
Lessons from past congestion at border gates therefore remain highly relevant, especially as importing countries continue to raise requirements on quarantine, food safety and sustainability.
Towards the US$10-billion target
Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive. On the back of continuous double-digit growth for years, and as Vietnam now ranks among the world’s 25 largest trading nations, VINAFRUIT believes export revenue could reach US$10 billion as early as 2026.
Many enterprises consider this target feasible if existing bottlenecks are addressed. A representative of the Tien Giang Vegetables and Fruits Joint Stock Company (VEGETIGI) said there remains substantial potential, particularly for processed goods and premium fresh fruit. However, businesses need stable policies on raw-material zones, logistics and market access.
Logistics costs – particularly cold-chain logistics – still account for a large share of expenses, undermining competitiveness compared with regional peers.
Experts stressed the need for comprehensive and long-term solutions, including concentrated farming zones, standardised production unit codes and certified packing facilities aligned with market demand. Diversifying export markets and increasing the share of processed goods are also seen as essential.
Mr. Nguyen Thanh Binh added that continued State support in market access, standards harmonisation and credit and logistics infrastructure will be key to ensuring sustainable growth. Crucially, the US$10-billion goal must be tied to the quality and resilience of growth since the sector remains vulnerable to climate, disease and market fluctuations.
