Amid signs of a potential surge in real estate lending, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) implemented control measures from the beginning of 2026 to ensure the safety of the system.
Tight controls on real estate lending
In the period preceding Tet (Lunar New Year), real estate companies disseminated a notice from BIDV instructing its branches to halt the submission of new real estate projects and business plans from corporate clients to the head office until further notice. BIDV clarified that this action was taken to adhere to the SBV's directive regarding the regulation of the growth rate of real estate lending in 2026, ensuring it does not surpass the overall credit growth rate.
According to SBV data, real estate lending is projected to increase by approximately 22 percent in 2025, but many experts believe that if all consumer loans related to real estate are included, the actual increase could reach 28 percent-30 percent.
In light of this situation, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has requested credit institutions to strictly control credit growth from the beginning of 2026. Accordingly, outstanding credit in the first three months of the year must not exceed 25 percent of the annual growth target (at approximately 15 percent). In particular, outstanding real estate loans at each bank must not increase faster than the overall credit growth rate. This is seen as a step to limit risks as the real estate market shows signs of rapid recovery after a period of stagnation.
Based on observations, the interest rates for 12-month deposit terms typically range from 6.1 percent to 7.2 percent per year, with certain banks providing preferential rates that can reach up to 8.2 percent per year. Many commercial banks have raised these rates. Additionally, interest rates for real estate lending have risen significantly in order to 'redirect' credit flows in line with policy directives. Surveys conducted at the end of January 2026 indicate that state-owned commercial banks have raised their home loan interest rates, surpassing those of some private joint-stock commercial banks.
Specifically, Vietcombank adjusted preferential loan interest rates for apartments and townhouses in Ho Chi Minh City to 9.6 percent/year (fixed for 6 months), 9.9 percent/year (12 months), 13.6 percent/year (18 months), and 13.9 percent/year (24 months). BIDV also applied a minimum interest rate of 9.7 percent/year for the first 6 months; 10.1 percent/year for 12 months and up to 13.5 percent/year for the first 18 months…
Banks are prioritizing social housing projects
The increase in real estate loan interest rates is explained by banks as a way to regulate capital flows and prioritize credit for the production and business sectors. Loans specifically for individuals' actual housing needs or social housing projects are still considered a priority by many banks in 2026.
As stated by banking and finance expert Le Hoai An, when the Government expedites the funding of essential projects, state-owned banks are typically anticipated to furnish capital and assistance.
In light of credit limits being allocated at the beginning of the first quarter, each new disbursement incurs an opportunity cost such as personal home loans are classified as long-term loans, whereas loans for priority projects are associated with designated disbursement plans and timelines.
Consequently, the rise in interest rates on home loans is perceived as a strategy for banks to proactively manage credit flows, giving precedence to credit limits for loans that must be disbursed in accordance with programs, particularly during the initial part of the year.
Louis Vu, a real estate expert at an investment fund, believes that the increase in interest rates creates a double impact: buyers find it difficult to access capital to buy houses, and developers have to bear higher financial costs. With the corporate bond market yet to recover and a large volume of maturing bonds remaining, cash flow pressure could lead to a contraction in the supply of real estate in the medium term.
A leader of a commercial bank currently offering preferential home loan packages for those under 35 in Ho Chi Minh City also acknowledges that rapidly rising home loan interest rates are putting significant financial pressure on buyers, especially after the preferential period ends.
Even for loan packages for those under 35, the initial preferential interest rate has been raised to around 8.5 percent-9 percent per year, much higher than the previous 5.5 percent, and comes with stricter conditions. When switching to floating interest rates, the loan amount could rise to 12 percent per year or higher, making repayment increasingly difficult, especially for those with high loan-to-value ratios.
