According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 9.01 percent in the first nine months of 2026, with third-quarter growth reaching 9.95 percent, outperforming the previous two quarters.
While these results establish a strong foundation for the final stretch of the year, achieving the target of double-digit annual growth will require fourth-quarter GDP to expand by more than 12.5 percent.
Over the remaining months, the ability to leverage foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic financial resources, particularly public investment, will play a decisive role in full-year economic growth.
During the nine-month period, total registered foreign investment exceeded US$50 billion, up more than 76 percent year on year, while newly registered capital topped US$29 billion, a 2.4-fold increase over the same period last year. Disbursed FDI reached an estimated US$21 billion, up 12 percent, marking the highest nine-month figure in the past five years. The FDI sector also accounted for nearly 81 percent of the nation's total export turnover, generating over US$350 billion, up more than 29 percent. This share highlights the significant role of foreign-invested enterprises in export activities.
In the domestic sector, realized capital investment from the state sector reached VND931,000 billion, accounting for 30 percent of total investment capital across society, an increase of over 17 percent compared to the same period last year. Development investment expenditure from the state budget reached VND657,500 billion, up 49 percent. As of September 30, public investment disbursement stood at nearly VND643,000 billion, equivalent to nearly 63 percent of the target set by the Prime Minister.
The General Statistics Office reported that 30 out of 34 provinces and centrally run cities recorded industrial and construction sector growth exceeding 10 percent in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.52 percent in the first nine months, while a trade deficit of over US$19 billion added pressure on exchange rates and imported inflation.
According to calculations by the Analysis Center of Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC) in its recently released September macroeconomic update report, for full-year GDP growth to top 10 percent, public investment disbursement must exceed 90 percent of the plan, while the growth rate of disbursed FDI must stay above 18 percent.
To effectively translate capital flows into economic growth, the key requirement is improving capital efficiency. For public investment, it is necessary to resolve bottlenecks in land clearance, administrative procedures, and raw material supply, while ensuring project quality and progress.
For FDI, the focus remains on attracting high-tech projects, increasing domestic value added, and promoting linkages between foreign-invested enterprises and Vietnamese companies. When resources are channeled into the right projects on schedule and generate new production capacity, the contribution of investment to economic growth will become more pronounced in the final months of the year.
