The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting on July 21 released its latest monthly climate outlook, covering the period from July 21 to August 20.
The agency forecasts that average temperatures nationwide will be 0.5–1 degree Celsius above the long-term average, with some areas in the Southern region expected to record temperatures up to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal.
Total rainfall across most parts of the country is forecast to remain close to the seasonal average. However, the Northern region and the area stretching from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh are expected to receive 5–15 percent more rainfall than the long-term average.
 "An aerial view of the aftermath of the recent flash floods in Muong Than Commune, Lai Chau Province. Photo: the Muong Than Commune People's Committee")
Regarding hazardous weather, forecasters said tropical storms and tropical depressions over the East Sea are likely to occur at around the historical average frequency, with the Northern and the North-central region facing the greatest risk of direct impacts.
On average, about 2.1 tropical storms or depressions form over the East Sea during this period each year, with 0.8 systems typically making direct landfall or significantly affecting the country.
Heatwaves are expected to persist in many parts of the country. The Northern midlands and Red River Delta, the region from Thanh Hoa to Da Nang and eastern areas from Quang Ngai to Dak Lak are likely to experience multiple hot days.
The Central region is forecast to record more heatwave days than usual, with some locations facing severe to extremely severe heat.
Widespread heavy rainfall is expected mainly in the Northern localities and the provinces from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh. Meanwhile, the Central Highlands and the Southern region are likely to continue experiencing frequent afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with some days seeing moderate to heavy rain.
Reviewing climate conditions over the past month, the weather agency said average temperatures across most regions were 0.5–1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, while rainfall totals in most areas were 20–40 percent below the long-term average. In contrast, the Northern mountainous areas recorded rainfall 15–40 percent above average.
Between June 21 and July 20, the Northern region experienced five widespread rainfall events, including heavy to very heavy rain on July 16 and July 17. The region from Thanh Hoa to Hue recorded three rainfall episodes, while the South-Central coast experienced four. The Central Highlands and Southern region also saw frequent showers and thunderstorms, with several days of moderate to heavy rainfall.
