Speaking at a storm preparedness meeting convened by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on July 3, Mai Van Khiem, Director General of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said that the most likely scenario is for storm Maysak to enter the Gulf of Tonkin late Friday, July 3, before its circulation reaches the Northern region on Saturday evening or night.
Forecast models indicate the storm is likely to track farther west than previously expected, moving toward the area between northern Quang Ninh Province and southern China.
By 1 p.m. on July 4, the storm's center is expected to be over the northern Gulf of Tonkin, about 170 kilometers southeast of Mong Cai in Quang Ninh Province, with sustained winds of 62–88 kilometers per hour (force 8–9) and gusts of up to 117 kilometers per hour (force 11).
From the afternoon of July 4, coastal areas of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong and Hung Yen are forecast to experience winds of force 6–7, strengthening to force 8 near the storm's center, with gusts reaching force 10.
At sea, the northwestern part of the East Sea and the Gulf of Tonkin are expected to see winds of force 8–9, gusting to force 11, with waves 2–4 meters high and very rough seas.
From the night of July 3 through July 5, the Northeastern region and Thanh Hoa Province are forecast to receive 100–200 mm of rainfall, with totals of 150–250 mm across much of the Northeast.
Rainfall could reach 200–400 mm in Quang Ninh, Hai Phong and Lang Son, with isolated areas receiving more than 500 mm.
Because the Northeastern region has experienced several days of rain, soils are already close to saturation, significantly increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas, particularly from Saturday night through Sunday.
Chairing the working session, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Nguyen Hoang Hiep said that storm Maysak is not expected to be particularly strong or penetrate far inland. However, he warned that its relatively moderate intensity could lead to complacency among local authorities and residents.
With the storm expected to affect the country during the weekend, the Deputy Minister urged local governments to strictly monitor tourism activities and passenger vessels, maintain maritime restrictions and avoid any lapse in safety measures.
