According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the Southern region continues to be affected by a moderate southwest monsoon, a typical pattern of the rainy season that promotes strong convective cloud formation in the late afternoon, leading to widespread thunderstorms.
Data from the center’s application shows that Tan Son Nhat area in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to record temperatures ranging from around 26 degrees Celsius to 32 degrees Celsius on June 19.
International forecast models show a similar trend. AccuWeather forecasts a high of around 33 degrees Celsius and a low of 26–27 degrees Celsius, with cloudy skies and rain likely toward the end of the day. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model also indicates high humidity levels, reaching up to 94 percent in the morning, with a high probability of thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening.
The main cause of the current rainfall pattern in Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern region is the sustained moderate southwest monsoon, which brings moist air from the sea inland. Combined with daytime surface heating, this creates favorable conditions for thunderstorm development in the late afternoon.
Residents are advised to stay alert for thunderstorms, lightning and strong gusts of wind in the evening.
