Experts agreed that while Vietnam is entering a new growth window, it is also confronting deep-rooted structural challenges that require decisive policy responses.
According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, the global economy in 2025–2026 is projected to grow by only 3.1–3.2 percent, with global inflation easing to around 3.7 percent and oil prices staying below US$60 per barrel. Against this backdrop, Vietnam has posted encouraging signals: inflation remains under control, the stock market has rebounded, and the real estate sector has begun to recover, albeit unevenly and without strong sustainability.
A key concern, however, is that credit growth in 2025 is forecast at around 18.5 percent, the highest level in many years. This pace raises risks to credit quality and macroeconomic stability at a time when monetary policy space is narrowing. Banking system liquidity is under pressure, interest rates show signs of edging up, and vulnerabilities related to credit quality are becoming more apparent. As a result, experts emphasized the need to recalibrate coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in 2026.
Sharing this view, Dr. Tran Du Lich, former Head of the HCMC Institute for Development Studies (HIDS), said growth must remain a priority but should not come at the expense of macroeconomic stability. He emphasized tighter fiscal–monetary coordination, removing cash flow bottlenecks, and steering credit toward the real economy. These elements, he argued, form the foundation for Vietnam’s long-term ambition of achieving average annual growth of around 10 percent and attaining developed-country status by 2045.
Dr. Tran Du Lich also noted that the post-Covid growth model based on three pillars—domestic consumption, exports, and public investment—has proven effective but is gradually approaching its limits. The groundbreaking of 234 major projects on December 19, with total investment estimated at about VND3.4 quadrillion, more than 80 percent of which comes from public investment, underscores the State’s role as “seed capital” for the economy.
New growth drivers, he said, must be rooted in science and technology, innovation, and the digital economy, alongside institutional reforms that promote competition, transparency, and efficiency. Without qualitative transformation, achieving double-digit growth will be extremely difficult.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, Member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, argued that the debate between prioritizing growth or stability cannot be resolved rigidly. Domestic private enterprises are expanding at only 6–7 percent, while the FDI sector accounts for nearly three-quarters of exports and growth. Credit has surged to nearly 20 percent this year, yet businesses still face capital shortages. Meanwhile, distortions and speculation in the real estate market continue to lock up vast resources, and the financial market remains fragmented.
Notably, around 3,000 legally stalled projects are estimated to be wasting VND6–7 quadrillion in resources. Resolving these bottlenecks could provide a powerful boost to the economy’s capacity to absorb capital, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien said.
