Yet, when weighed against real-world conditions and examined closely, the measure may prove neither essential nor effective—and could even carry unintended consequences.
Air pollution, by its very nature, is transboundary. Emissions, fine dust, and other pollutants do not stop at administrative borders; they drift with wind, weather, and topography. This means that even if emissions are tightened downtown, pollution from surrounding areas will still seep in, diluting the overall benefits. In short, an LEZ does not guarantee cleaner air in the city’s core.
Worse still, the policy could create inequities in environmental management. As high-emission vehicles are barred from the center, they will cluster in outlying districts—where residents enjoy fewer protections and environmental infrastructure is weaker. Pollution is thus not eliminated, but displaced. At the same time, workers and businesses reliant on traveling through the downtown area may find their livelihoods disrupted. Instead of addressing the root cause, the LEZ risks merely shifting the problem from one area to another.
To genuinely move toward net-zero, Vietnam must adopt a holistic approach across the entire emissions chain—energy, production, distribution, consumption, and lifestyle. The most pressing issue is the energy transition. Unlike many advanced economies, Vietnam still relies heavily on coal-fired power plants for electricity, while renewable sources remain limited and the Ninh Binh nuclear project is only in its early stages.
Coal power emits vast amounts of carbon. Thus, even if electric vehicles produce little direct pollution, their growing electricity demand indirectly fuels higher emissions from thermal plants. For green mobility to deliver real results, transportation decarbonization must go hand in hand with greening the energy sector.
In that roadmap, supply-side reforms are more effective than demand-side restrictions. Stricter manufacturing standards should be introduced, requiring automakers to meet higher emission thresholds and take responsibility for recalling vehicles after a set period of use. This would systematically phase out high-polluting vehicles, with manufacturers compelled to buy them back at fair value.
For older vehicles already in circulation, the State could subsidize manufacturers or set up a public agency to purchase and recycle them. This approach balances the interests of citizens and industry, making behavioral change more acceptable. At that point, economic incentives—such as tax breaks and green credit support—would become powerful levers, while administrative bans should play only a supporting role, not the backbone of policy.
Rather than treating LEZs as a “silver bullet” for pollution and green transport, HCMC should pursue its net-zero ambition through a comprehensive framework that leverages incentives to encourage lasting behavioral change. The goal is not to clear the air on a handful of downtown streets, but to improve air quality across the entire metropolis and the nation—so that all citizens, whether downtown or on the outskirts, can share the same clean sky. Only through such an approach can Vietnam protect the environment while ensuring social equity and long-term effectiveness.
