By August 2022, credit for the real estate sector increased by 15.68 percent compared to the end of 2021, while credit for investment and securities trading decreased by 35.07 percent, according to a report by Ms. Nguyen Thi Hong, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, to the National Assembly on the results of the implementation of Resolution No.62/2022/QH15 and Resolution No.63/2022/QH15.
Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City Branch, said that by the end of September 2022, credit growth in the city is estimated to increase by 12 percent compared to the end of 2021, a sharp increase of 4.97 percent (in 2021), 4.99 percent (in 2020), and 10.2 percent (in 2019), respectively, compared to the same period in the previous three years.
From the end of this year onwards, real estate businesses will face a worrisome period due to cash flow shortages as corporate bonds will begin to mature. This will be in sharp contrast to the enthusiasm with which these businesses raced with each other to issue bonds in the years 2019 until 2021.
The country’s economy is recovering positively after the Covid-19 pandemic, making the capital demand for production and business increase. However, businesses are hungry for capital while banks exhaust credit quotas.
According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), by the beginning of July, the whole economy's credit reached VND11.4 quadrillion, up 9.35 percent, while it only increased by about 6 percent in the same period last year. In this context, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Thi Hong has recently sent a message on maintaining the orientation of credit growth of 14 percent in 2022 and, at the same time, gave many guidelines to help enterprises access the 2-percent interest rate support loan package.
The banking industry has been facing many difficulties due to concerns about inflation and increasing bad debts since Circular No.14 ended, especially the Government's actions to closely manage and supervise the capital and real estate markets. Will this sentiment bring banking stocks to attractive levels in both the short and long term?
It may not be necessary to apply a credit room if the State Bank of Vietnam asks commercial banks to apply safety indicators seriously and substantively according to Circular 41/2016/NHNN-TT and Basel II.
The discussion for granting credit limits to commercial banks heated up at the third session of the fifteenth National Assembly when delegate Mr. Trinh Xuan An from Dong Nai asked the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam to explain the rationality behind the credit room allocation mechanism, and whether it interfered with bank operations.
By June 9, credit increased by 8.15 percent compared to the end of 2021. And after only one week, credit has increased by about 8.2 percent, nearly doubled compared to the same period in 2021. This is a positive signal showing that the economy is recovering strongly.
Since the beginning of the year, when production and business activities have been resumed, credit growth has increased robustly. By the beginning of June 2022, the credit of the banking industry had risen by 8 percent compared to the end of 2021, a rather high increase compared to the target of 14 percent for the whole year 2022. Currently, the demand for loans from individuals and businesses remains extremely high, but many banks have reached the limit of credit room, so they cannot lend any more.