After navigating a challenging first half shaped by global economic headwinds, the economy expanded by 8.18 percent. Reaching the full-year target, however, will require a significantly stronger performance in the remaining six months, driven by the combined strength of public investment, domestic consumption, private investment, credit expansion, and international capital inflows.
According to SSI Research's July strategy report titled Undercurrents, Vietnam must post GDP growth of 11.9 percent in the second half to meet its annual objective. Such an ambitious target will require coordinated policy support and multiple growth engines operating simultaneously.
Public investment is expected to remain the primary catalyst. Faster disbursement of public funds in the second half is anticipated to accelerate major infrastructure projects, generating spillover benefits for construction materials, engineering and construction, logistics, and other infrastructure-related industries. Beyond state spending, SSI Research also highlighted private infrastructure investment as an increasingly important growth driver. Recent adjustments to credit policies are expected to improve financing access for privately funded infrastructure projects, creating additional room for economic expansion.
Domestic consumption is also projected to strengthen. An 8-percent increase in the statutory base salary, effective from July, is expected to boost household purchasing power, supporting retail sales and service-sector activity through the remainder of the year. At the same time, easing inflationary pressures provide a more favorable backdrop for consumption. Global oil prices have fallen by more than 30 percent from their March peak, returning to levels seen before tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified. Lower energy prices are helping reduce production costs and ease inflation, allowing monetary authorities to maintain a stable interest-rate environment that supports both businesses and consumers.
Corporate earnings are expected to remain resilient across several key sectors. SSI Research forecasts continued profit growth in the second quarter and throughout the year for banks, retailers, construction materials producers, technology companies, logistics firms, and rubber manufacturers. The outlook reflects a gradual recovery in business activity across multiple industries, reinforcing the broader economic rebound.
International capital flows could provide another important tailwind. SSI Research expects investment linked to Vietnam's anticipated stock market upgrade to begin entering the market as early as September, potentially boosting liquidity, strengthening the financial market, and improving investor confidence.
Monetary policy has also become more accommodative. The State Bank of Vietnam has increased the ratio of short-term funds that commercial banks may use for medium- and long-term lending from 30 percent to 40 percent, while easing selected lending conditions for infrastructure and real estate projects. These measures are intended to improve businesses' access to financing and encourage investment.
Although the foundations for stronger growth are gradually taking shape, achieving double-digit expansion will ultimately depend on effective policy implementation, businesses' ability to absorb capital, and the timely execution of investment projects. If these longstanding bottlenecks are addressed in a coordinated manner, Vietnam will be better positioned to realize its ambitious growth target while laying a stronger foundation for sustainable long-term economic development.
