The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting issued its latest assessment of weather and climate trends across Vietnam on Sep 4.
According to the center, El Nino conditions remain strong, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific about 1.8 degrees Celsius above average during the final week of August.
El Nino is expected to remain strong to very strong through the closing months of 2026, with a probability of up to 95 percent, and could persist into the first half of 2027.
Forecasters said around two to three storms or tropical depressions could occur in the East Sea in September, including the recently recorded storm Saudel (storm No.5). Of these, one or two systems could directly affect Vietnam's mainland.
Temperatures nationwide are expected to average around 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above normal during the month.
Widespread heat is expected to persist across Northern and Central Vietnam in early September, before gradually easing in intensity and duration later in the month.
Central Vietnam could still experience several spells of widespread heat, particularly along the South Central Coast. Hot conditions may disrupt daily life, as well as agricultural and other production activities.
Rainfall patterns are also expected to vary considerably across regions.
In August, total rainfall across Northern Vietnam and areas from Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri was generally 50 to 100 percent above the long-term average.
In September, however, rainfall in Northern Vietnam and from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh could fall 20 to 40 percent below average.
Despite the overall rainfall deficit, forecasters warned that intense downpours could still occur over localized areas and within short periods, raising the risk of flash flooding and other weather-related hazards.
In the Central Highlands and Central Vietnam, September rainfall is forecast to be around 10 to 20 percent above the long-term average.
Southern Vietnam, meanwhile, is expected to record a slight rainfall shortfall of about 5 to 15 percent. Rainfall across most other parts of the country is likely to remain close to seasonal averages.
