The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam this morning held a press conference on Vietnam’s economic outlook in Hanoi raising its economic growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.8 percent in 2026 and 7.6 percent in 2027, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2026.
Compared to its previous economic growth forecast of 7.2 percent for this year, ADB's new projection for Vietnam’s economic growth shows greater optimism.
At the press conference, Shantanu Chakraborty, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, said that ADB had revised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth upward to 7.8 percent in 2026 and 7.6 percent in 2027, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2026.
According to the ADB report, Vietnam’s economy maintained strong growth momentum across all sectors in the first half of the year, with gross domestic product expanding by 8.2 percent, higher than the 7.5 percent recorded in the same period of 2025. Inflation in Vietnam for 2026 is projected at 4.3 percent, up from the 4 percent forecast announced in July.
ADB forecasts that in the coming time, monetary policy will continue to support growth as the State Bank of Vietnam maintains the refinancing rate at 4.5 percent, aiming for credit growth of about 15 percent, prioritizing capital for production, business, and priority sectors while strictly controlling credit extended to risky areas. Fiscal policy will also support growth through tax and fee exemption and reduction measures.
Investment is expected to remain the primary growth driver in the second half of 2026, driven by public investment, FDI capital, and increased private investment in major infrastructure projects.
ADB also warned of several challenges facing Vietnam’s economy. According to Bui Minh Giap, ADB Principal Country Economist in Vietnam, an uncertain external environment and weakening global demand could impact exports and investment while exerting pressure on inflation and exchange rates. Growth heavily reliant on credit to finance major projects could elevate liquidity risks, maturity mismatches, and credit concentration.
Public investment disbursement remains slow, while business withdrawals from the market and difficulties in accessing capital for small enterprises persist.
To sustain this trend and achieve higher-quality progress, according to ADB, Vietnam needs to continue cautious macroeconomic management to curb inflation, ensure financial stability, accelerate structural reforms, and guarantee that the economy continues to expand based on investments that yield productivity improvements.
