The Politburo’s Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private sector development has driven vital policy and practical shifts. However, slowing private investment alongside barriers in business conditions, taxes, and corporate inspections pose major challenges to reaching the goal of 2 million operating enterprises by 2030.
On May 13, the Financial Investment Magazine – VietnamFinance hosted a seminar in Hanoi titled "One-Year Mark of Implementing Resolution 68." Participants agreed that the resolution has transformed awareness, policies, and determination to advance the private sector. By focusing on businesses as the centerpiece, fostering growth, and unlocking resources, the resolution aims to push the country toward a modern market economy.
Yet, Chairman Le Minh Nghia of the Vietnam Association of Financial Consultants noted that despite positive rhetoric, the understanding of the private sector remains incomplete.
Resolution 68-NQ/TW sets a target of 2 million enterprises by 2030 and 3 million by 2045. Globally, these figures remain modest. Seminar data showed that the global average is one business per 9 people. This ratio stands at 6.6 to 6.7 people per business in South Korea, 10 in Singapore, 22 in Thailand, and 24 in China. In contrast, Vietnam currently has around 100 people per business. Reaching the targets would lower this ratio to 50 people per business by 2030 and 33 by 2045.
Mr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, stated that the 2030 goal of 2 million enterprises is clear and measurable. Vietnam currently has about 1 million active businesses. To reach the target, the country needs 1 million more, averaging an increase of 200,000 businesses annually.
However, current trends are unfavorable. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung pointed out that the ratio of businesses entering or re-entering the market compared to those exiting is steadily dropping. From 2016 to 2020, for every two businesses entering the market, one exited. Since 2021, this has plummeted to a near one-to-one ratio. He warned that if this trend continues, the 2030 goal will be very difficult to achieve.
Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, former Vice Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, agreed that despite positive signs after one year of Resolution 68-NQ/TW, multiple bottlenecks remain. Private investment flows are slowing down. The private sector once accounted for up to 91 percent of total investment, but that share has dropped to 67 percent. High interest rates have directly dampened investor sentiment.
Further pressure stems from technical bottlenecks in the economy. As the Government accelerates public investment spending, the costs of land, site clearance compensation, and industrial park rentals have risen. This causes many businesses to delay expansion plans.
Tax and invoicing regulations for household businesses present another hurdle. Forcing household businesses above a certain revenue threshold to declare full invoices and documents aims to boost transparency. However, small household businesses struggle because they buy raw materials from traditional markets without formal invoicing systems. Consequently, some households downsize, split operations, or divide revenue among family members to bypass tax declaration pressures.
Furthermore, intensified corporate inspections regarding finance and accounting, unfair competition, environmental regulations, fire safety, and labor safety have made businesses increasingly cautious.
