Pork prices are at an all-time high
Breeders said that a kilogram of live pigs were sold between VND72,000 and VND75,000 in the southern provinces on February 17. This price range represents a substantial jump of VND6,000 to VND8,000 per kilogram compared to prices in the fourth quarter of 2024. This current price is the highest it has been in the past three years.
Traders in Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Ca Mau provinces and Can Tho City particularly purchased live pigs at VND73,000 a kg while the price of live pigs in Dong Thap, Soc Trang, Long An, Vinh Long and Hau Giang provinces was about VND72,000 a kg. In Dong Nai Province, traders are buying live pigs at a very high price, reaching VND75,000 a kg.
The rising cost of live pigs has had a direct impact on the price of pork available to consumers. According to managers of Hoc Mon wholesale market in HCMC, on the same day, the wholesale price of pork at the market fluctuated from VND90,000-VND95,000 a kg depending on the specific type of pork. Particularly, pork chops fetched VND93,000 a kg, ham VND68,000-VND78,000 a kg, and lean pork VND123,000 a kg.
Meanwhile, the retail price of pork was adjusted by traders at traditional markets in HCMC to increase by VND15,000-VND20,000 a kg compared to before Tet.
Trader Le Thi Ly at Go Vap market described the dilemma, saying that traders across markets have been struggling with low demand since Tet and didn't want to raise prices. However, the increased cost of imported pork leaves them with no option but to increase the prices to avoid losing money.
Vice President Nguyen Kim Doan of the Dong Nai Livestock Association commented that the increase in pig prices due to African swine fever at the end of 2024 has affected the pig herd. The epidemic has caused farms and livestock enterprises to sell pigs early to avoid being affected. Pigs sold early, their weight decreased, and their quantity decreased, affecting the supply output in the market.
Despite a current dip in pig supply at Hoc Mon and Binh Dien wholesale markets in HCMC, the situation is expected to improve soon. Daily consumption has fallen from the usual 7,000 pigs to 3,000-3,500, and output is lower than in previous years, but this is not anticipated to last.
As pig prices rise, farmers and commercial operations will accelerate herd rebuilding efforts, leading to a recovery in the pig population in the near future. Along with that, disease prevention measures to ensure pig safety are also being actively implemented by enterprises and farms.
A CEO of BaF Vietnam Agriculture Joint Stock Company warned that the significant gap (around VND13,000-VND14,000 a kg) between domestic pork prices and prices in neighboring countries like China, Thailand, and Cambodia poses a major risk of increased pork smuggling.
From January 1, 2025, the Law on Livestock took effect, stipulating that livestock farms in areas where livestock farming is not allowed in cities, towns, and residential areas will be forced to move to other places. This also affects the supply.
The Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Dong Nai Province, which hosts the largest pig population in the country, reports that by the end of 2024, nearly 2,000 facilities in the province will have ceased pig farming or relocated in accordance with the directives set forth by relevant authorities.
Over 1,900 businesses have shut down, but a small number of remaining establishments have relocated from residential neighborhoods to garden and farm areas to continue raising livestock on a smaller scale - household scale.
Livestock industry makes big profits
The rise in live pig prices not only benefits farmers but also pig farming companies. In the latest trading session on February 14, shares of Masan MeatLife Joint Stock Company (MML) saw a 7.25 percent increase, reaching VND35,000 per share. This represents a nearly 9 percent rise from the previous week and an impressive increase of over 34 percent since the start of February 2025.
The shares of Dabaco Vietnam Group Joint Stock Company (DBC) rose by over 4.5 percent last week and have seen an increase of more than 8 percent since the start of the month, currently priced at VND27,450 per share. Similarly, BaF Vietnam Agriculture Joint Stock Company (BAF) experienced a nearly 5 percent rise last week and an increase of almost 6 percent since the beginning of February, with shares currently valued at VND29,200 each.
Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) forecasts that livestock stocks will improve as pork prices are expected to rise due to declining supply, according to the firm's recent financial report. Additionally, the price of animal feed grains is showing signs of increasing.
Encouraged by favorable market conditions, businesses possessing suitable land are making plans to expand their livestock facilities. BAF anticipates continuing to bring numerous farms into operation during the first half of this year, with an expected addition of nearly 20,000 sows and 162,000 pigs.
In addition, BAF also signed a cooperation agreement with Muyuan Group to deploy pig farming in a 6-storey farm, applying modern farming techniques to increase productivity and reduce costs.
As for Dabaco, it is expected that the company's vaccine will be commercialized in early 2025, contributing positively to the company's revenue. In 2026 and 2027, Dabaco also plans to build more pig farms in Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen and Thanh Hoa raising 3,000-5,000 sows and 50,000-70,000 pigs.
Overall, economists say that pig prices will remain high until mid-2025, before falling slightly and remaining stable in 2026, when supply will gradually stabilize again.
