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Illustrative photo: SGGP |
Overcoming many difficulties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and changes in the world, Vietnam has moved through different stages to successfully fulfill its goals and tasks, both focusing on disease prevention, control and control and recovering economic development.
GDP growth in 2022 surged to 8.02 percent; plus, GDP per capita in 2022 reached US$4,110, equivalent to VND 95.6 million at current prices. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.15 percent compared to 2021, reaching the target set by the National Assembly.
The GDP growth rate in 2022 far exceeds the target set by the Resolution of the National Assembly and the Government's determination to strive (6 percent-6.5 percent) - a goal that few people thought the country hardly achieved after the time when the economy was severely affected by the pandemic. With a high growth rate among the leading countries and territories in the world, Vietnam's position is enhanced.
Vietnam's GDP in Southeast Asia has increased from the fourth position in 11 countries in 2020 to the third in 2022. In the world, Vietnam’s position has increased from 36th out of 118 countries and territories with comparative figures in 2020 to 33rd in 2022.
GDP per capita in 2022 of $4,110 is also an important basis for 2023 to exceed the target of $4,400 and in 2025 to realize the goal of breaking the middle-income trap. Most importantly, the quality of growth has improved. The capital efficiency coefficient (ICOR) in the previous two years was at 14 - 15, it dropped below 6 in 2022.
In addition, high GDP growth will also pave the way for higher exports than imports (US$371.85 billion versus US$360.65 billion). The trade surplus was 2.7 times higher than last year, and 2022 became the seven consecutive years of trade surplus. High GDP growth also contributed to the total budget revenue exceeding the estimate and contributing to the increase in final consumption, improving the people's real living standards.
Noticeably, in the fourth quarter of this year, some signs have predicted that 2023 will be more difficult. For instance, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 is estimated to increase by 5.92 percent over the same period last year, although higher than the growth rate of 4.7 percent and 5.17 percent of the same period in 2020 and 2021, but still lower than the growth rate of the previous fourth quarter of the years from 2011 to 2019.
The index of industrial production (IIP) in the fourth quarter, an indicator that cannot be ignored when it comes to the sustainability of growth, increased only 3 percent, the lowest increase compared to previous quarters in 2022, due to orders decline, high input costs and shortage of raw material supply.
Roughly 33.7 percent of surveyed enterprises announced to be having difficulties, which also means that less optimistic than in the third quarter. Vietnam just welcomed nearly 3.7 million international visitors in 2022, down 79.7 percent compared to 2019 - the year there was no Covid-19 epidemic.
Despite forecasts that world inflation has peaked in 2022 and will gradually subside in 2023, the situation is said to be still extremely complicated, while Vietnam's economy is relatively open; thereby, the Southeast Asian country is dramatically reliant on external influences. Prices of raw materials, fuel and materials are expected to continue to increase, while Vietnam spends much on the import of raw materials, fuel and materials for production.
This requires price management agencies to closely monitor the world situation and operate flexibly to ensure that inflation will not be over 4.5 percent which was approved by the National Assembly.
