Vietnam has actively rolled out the Statistical Scheme for the non-observed economy (NOE) since 2019, implementing Decision No.146/QD-TTg. Following seven years of implementation, the paramount challenge remains forging a robust methodology to comprehensively pinpoint those glaring statistical omissions.
For General Director Nguyen Thi Huong of the General Statistics Office, the crux of the matter lies strictly in methodology. Speaking at a recent project summary conference, she firmly asserted that tracking the NOE isn’t about mechanically inflating the GDP scale, nor does it legitimize illicit economic activities.
The major objective is to comprehensively reflect the scale, structural integrity, and dynamic fluctuations of the economy. This elevates the quality of national account indicators, serving management and policy formulation much more effectively.
In reality, no single nation can confidently claim they’ve completely observed every facet of their economic activities. The primary discrepancy essentially lies in the statistical system’s coverage and its innate capacity to update methodologies alongside data sources amidst the economy’s rapid metamorphoses.
Small manufacturing operations, the informal sector, or inadequately declared self-produced activities have presumably forged a data “grey zone” that absolutely every statistical agency grapples with. It isn’t a void within the economy itself, but rather a glaring gap in the observational capabilities.
Take, for instance, a commercial establishment that manages to sell 100 products but deliberately declares only 80. Those remaining 20 products urgently need to be identified and estimated via appropriate statistical methodologies to accurately mirror the economy’s genuine scale.
One particularly confounding element is the underground economy. General Director Huong elaborated that it possesses myriad elements distinguishing it from the illegal economy, which encapsulates operations strictly prohibited by law, like trafficking contraband. “Both of these clandestine activities invariably exert negative impacts on the economy. Therefore, every nation strives to curtail these specific activities rather than legitimizing them or factoring them directly into the GDP,” she added.
Meanwhile, the informal sector encompasses production units that genuinely generate jobs and income; they operate on a micro-scale and aren’t adequately captured statistically. This is the most glaringly identified domain today. Statistical results reveal that in 2024, the nation harbored approximately 4 million informal establishments employing roughly 6.5 million workers. This generates an estimated VND579 trillion (US$22.3 billion) in added value, equating to 4.6 percent of the GDP.
Similarly, quantifying rural households’ self-produced activities in rural areas pragmatically mirrors the transition from sheer self-sufficiency to market-oriented commodity production. Its added-value proportion within the GDP dropped from 0.8 percent in 2010 to just 0.6 percent in 2024. It’s a remarkably crucial indicator reflecting the agricultural restructuring process alongside the broader expansion of the formal economic sector.
These figures are rigorously calculated utilizing annual censuses, concurrently leveraging tax data for meticulous cross-referencing. Non-observed informal activities will undeniably undergo further scrutiny following the highly anticipated 2026 Economic Census.
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, omitting or inadequately estimating the NOE sector can ostensibly trigger three major ramifications. It distorts the economy’s authentic scale alongside its structure, erodes fiscal plus monetary policy precision since a chunk of cash flow evades the data scope, and compromises the reliability of forecasting models alongside inter-industry balance sheets.
For Deputy Director General Le Trung Hieu of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the underlying value is paramount. He emphasized that the NOE statistics’ greatest worth doesn’t lie on whether the GDP inflates or shrinks, but rather on the main quality of the national statistical system.
This is vividly demonstrated through the construction of conceptual frameworks, measurement methodologies, plus data exploitation mechanisms tailored to Vietnam’s unique conditions. It concurrently harmonizes statistical surveys with administrative data, such as taxes, e-commerce, and digital platforms, to realistically mirror the economy’s true magnitude.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Van Anh, an esteemed economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Office in Vietnam, reportedly stated the IMF considers Vietnam’s approach fundamentally aligned with global recommendations.
While Vietnam ambitiously targets robust growth and sustains macroeconomic stability, perfecting this system undeniably bolsters evidence-based analysis, forecasting, plus policy formulation. However, according to the IMF expert, the statistics sector desperately requires seamless coordination alongside stringent data sharing from various ministries.
Comprehensively tracking the NOE sector doesn’t aim to arbitrarily generate larger GDP scales, but rather illuminates exactly how the economy functions. It pinpoints where informal labor persists or where novel business models evolve faster than the data system’s capacity to adapt. Once this economic “map” is meticulously refined, indicators encompassing growth, productivity, plus policy efficacy will mirror reality much more closely, forging a profoundly reliable data foundation.
Prof Dr Tran Tho Dat from National Economics University voiced that when manufacturing and labor operations aren’t adequately captured, macroeconomic indicators become wildly skewed. This jeopardizes fiscal, monetary, plus social security policies. It’s imperative to distinguish between sheer measurement and actual management. Statistics objectively reflect what genuinely exists, while controlling activities falls under state agencies’ jurisdiction. When data is comprehensive, policies simply hit the mark better.
For economic expert Dr Bui Trinh, compiling NOE statistics is akin to shining a spotlight into the economy’s obscured corners. Its essential value isn’t manipulating GDP figures, but rather reflecting the economy’s authentic scale. The NOE encapsulates the underground economy, the informal sector, plus data collection omissions. If they remain unidentified, the State navigates using an inadequately incomplete picture. Once input data becomes accurate, pivotal decisions regarding taxation or developmental planning will inevitably become far more grounded in reality.
