Seeking support above 1,725 points
The VN-Index ended the final trading week of July on a strong recovery, gaining nearly 50 points from the previous week to close at 1,735.78. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index fell 1.74 points to 271.25.
Several securities firms expect the VN-Index to consolidate around 1,725 points as it absorbs profit-taking pressure before potentially advancing toward 1,770-1,800.
Thien Viet Securities (TVS) expects the index to consolidate around 1,720-1,730 and recommends increasing exposure to companies with strong earnings-growth prospects and attractive valuations.
Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) expects the VN-Index to hold its 1,730-1,750 support zone and resume its upward trajectory. According to VCBS, liquidity continues to rotate among sectors, providing a foundation for further gains. Investors could use market pullbacks to accumulate banking and securities stocks.
Vietcap Securities (VCSC) said the current correction is primarily aimed at consolidating the recovery trend. The VN-Index could experience volatility around the 1,700-1,720 support zone before targeting 1,770-1,800.
Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) expects the index to consolidate above 1,725 after facing profit-taking pressure around 1,760-1,765. It advised investors against chasing rallies, recommending staggered buying when the market retreats toward 1,720-1,730 and urging strict control of leverage.
High probability of gains in August
Securities firms' data show that the VN-Index has posted gains in August for six consecutive years, averaging 3.9 percent — the highest among all months.
In its August market outlook, MB Securities (MBS) puts the probability of a market gain at around 80 percent. Following a correction of more than 250 points, or about 13 percent from its recent peak, the VN-Index has returned to a more attractive valuation range, creating room for a rebound.
Beyond seasonal factors, the market is also expected to benefit from several catalysts, including the first extraordinary session of the 16th National Assembly, which will consider important legislation related to land, housing, and real estate; FTSE Russell's expected announcement of the stock basket ahead of Vietnam's market reclassification review on August 21; and signs that foreign investors are reducing net selling and returning to large-cap stocks.
The VN-Index's forward P/E currently stands at around 11.8 times, below its five-year average. Excluding Vingroup stocks, market valuations appear even more attractive. MBS highlighted VHM, VCB, TCB, STB, FPT, GMD, and PHP among stocks worth watching in August.
Ms. Le Thi Hang, Head of the Business Division at VPBank Securities (VPBS), said the market remains on a positive trajectory but could experience sharp bouts of volatility. Profit-taking after a strong recovery is normal, she said, adding that corrections accompanied by lower liquidity could create opportunities to rotate portfolios toward companies with solid fundamentals.
Analysts at LPB Securities (LPBS) recommended that short-term investors make only exploratory purchases when liquidity improves and strictly observe stop-loss rules. For medium-term investors, the extent to which capital flows broaden beyond large-cap stocks will be crucial to determining the sustainability of the recovery.
Mr. Pham Luu Hung, Chief Economist and Director of the SSI Research Center for Analysis and Investment Advisory, said the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75 percent came as no surprise. However, inflationary pressures persist, and the Fed's rate decisions from September through December 2026 will warrant close monitoring as they could affect exchange rates and international capital flows amid Vietnam's efforts to secure an upgrade in market classification.
Despite external risks, the main drivers of Vietnam's stock market remain domestic, including credit growth, public investment, the recovery of the real estate sector, and institutional reforms.
Mr. Phan Tan Nhat, Senior Market Strategy Specialist at SHB Securities (SHS), said total market capitalization at the short-term trough around 1,650 points stood at approximately US$382 billion, equivalent to 74 percent of Vietnam's 2025 GDP.
Excluding Vingroup stocks, market capitalization stood at around $290 billion, with a P/E ratio of about 10.3 times and a P/B ratio of 1.52 times — levels comparable to those seen at market bottoms during previous crises. Many fundamentally sound, high-growth companies are currently trading at P/E ratios of just 4-8 times, while P/B ratios have fallen to multi-year lows.
Mr. Phan Tan Nhat said the market had a solid foundation for recovery as valuations returned to attractive levels, forced-selling pressure eased, and macroeconomic conditions remained favorable, despite declines across many global equity markets.
"VN-Index is gradually emerging from a deep correction. In a positive scenario, the index could rebound to test 1,770-1,800 points. Further ahead, supported by corporate earnings growth, continued economic recovery, and expectations of Vietnam's market upgrade, the 1,650-point level is likely to become the floor of the investment cycle over the next six to 12 months," he said.
30 companies set dividend, bonus share dates
During the trading week from August 3 to 7, 30 companies will finalize shareholder lists for cash dividends or bonus shares, with the highest payout reaching 100 percent.
Pho Yen Mechanical JSC (FBC) will close its shareholder list for its 2025 cash dividend at a rate of 100 percent, equivalent to VND10,000 per share.
Vinhomes JSC (VHM) will pay a 100 percent stock dividend, meaning shareholders will receive one additional share for every share held.
