The VN-Index gained 5.55 percent in August from the end of July and closed the month above the 1,790-1,800 range, reinforcing its short-term uptrend. Securities firms now see 1,860-1,865 as the next major resistance zone, with a break above that level potentially paving the way toward 1,950.
KBS Securities said the index's bullish structure had strengthened after it formed a higher low and broke through 1,800. Its base-case scenario sees the benchmark consolidating between 1,800 and 1,870 in September before attempting another advance.
A challenge of the record high near 1,933 may take longer, however, and could come after capital linked to the FTSE upgrade begins flowing into the market.
SHS and Phu Hung Securities (PHS) also remain upbeat, while warning that selling pressure could intensify as the index approaches major resistance levels. SHS expects the VN-Index to target 1,850-1,900, while PHS sees hurdles at 1,840-1,860 and 1,880-1,900 before the benchmark can challenge its historic peak of 1,930-1,937.
"With FTSE Russell officially moving Vietnam into the secondary emerging-market category from September 21, a return to the 1,930 area in September is feasible," said Nguyen Thi My Lien, Head of Research at PHS.
She cautioned, however, that this remained a bullish rather than base-case scenario. After seven consecutive gains, the market could see volatility and retest 1,800-1,820, with 1,880-1,900 a more realistic near-term target.
Rally expected to continue after National Day holiday
OCB Securities (OCBS) analysts said the National Day holiday would provide a useful pause, allowing the market to absorb profit-taking after its rapid advance.
When trading resumes, the VN-Index's outlook should remain positive as long as it holds above 1,800 and liquidity continues to favor market-leading sectors. Banks, securities firms, and property developers are expected to remain in focus, while large-cap technology, public investment, and retail stocks could also benefit if capital flows broaden.
After the recent rally, analysts recommend holding stocks with strong upward momentum while avoiding aggressive buying as the VN-Index approaches 1,840-1,850. Periods of volatility could instead provide opportunities to rebalance portfolios and increase exposure to fundamentally sound companies.
FTSE-linked inflows could eventually reach $4.28 billion
Market liquidity improved markedly in August, while foreign investor flows also showed signs of stabilizing. Overseas investors recorded net purchases of more than VND1.1 trillion in the final week of the month.
For August as a whole, foreign investors posted net sales of about VND1.37 trillion, sharply below the average monthly net selling of roughly VND15.43 trillion during the preceding three months.
The shift comes as FTSE Russell announced changes to its Global Equity Index Series, or GEIS, ahead of the first allocation associated with Vietnam's upgrade, due to take effect on September 21.
FTSE Russell has added 27 Vietnamese stocks to its FTSE Emerging indexes. Six stocks - VCB, VIC, VHM, BID, HPG, and VPB - will join both the FTSE All-World and FTSE All-Cap indexes, while another 21 will be included in the FTSE All-Cap.
VNDirect Securities estimates Vietnam's weighting in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index at about 0.48-0.50 percent, up from 0.33-0.35 percent in March 2026.
At that weighting, passive inflows over the entire upgrade process could exceed $2.2 billion. The money is expected to be deployed in four phases beginning September 21, 2026, and ending in September 2027. The first phase will represent 10 percent of the target weighting, equivalent to roughly $220 million, or more than VND5.76 trillion.
VPS Securities puts potential passive inflows at nearly $2.4 billion if Vietnam reaches a weighting of about 0.49 percent in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index.
SSI Research has outlined a more bullish scenario. If Vietnam's weighting in FTSE's emerging-market benchmark rises to 0.95 percent by September 2027, passive inflows could reach $4.28 billion.
Under that scenario, conglomerate VIC could attract about $1.34 billion, followed by VHM with $478.6 million, steelmaker HPG with $275.3 million, VPB with $187.6 million, and technology group FPT with $185.5 million.
SSI Research cautioned, however, that the estimate represents an illustrative scenario rather than a firm projection. Vietnam's eventual weighting will depend on several factors, including investable market capitalization, free-float levels, market accessibility for foreign investors, and further upgrades to trading infrastructure. Spreading the inflows across several phases should allow the market to absorb the additional capital more smoothly, while helping broaden its international investor base, deepen liquidity, and encourage greater institutional participation.
In the near term, FTSE-related inflows could provide an important tailwind for Vietnamese equities. Still, after the market's strong rally, profit-taking and pullbacks remain a risk as the VN-Index approaches major resistance levels. Analysts recommend maintaining prudent portfolio exposure and focusing on fundamentally strong industry leaders and companies positioned to benefit from economic growth, rather than chasing stocks that have already risen sharply.
Five stocks seen with upside of more than 30 percent
MBS expects market conditions to remain favorable during the first half of September, supported by upgrade expectations, stronger liquidity, and heightened interest in the 27 Vietnamese stocks entering FTSE indexes.
Volatility could increase after September 21. Against that backdrop, MBS has compiled a 10-stock "Alpha" portfolio for September 2026. Five of those companies are seen as offering potential upside of more than 30 percent.
