Although Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports to the Middle East account for only about 2 percent of the country’s total global shipments in these sectors, a prolonged conflict in the region could weaken global demand and indirectly affect other markets. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is therefore preparing response scenarios to mitigate potential impacts.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment provided updates on agricultural production and exports, as well as measures to cope with volatility in international markets, including disruptions stemming from tensions in the Middle East, at a regular press briefing in Hanoi on March 11.
According to Mr. Le Ba Anh, Deputy Director of the National Authority for Agro-Forestry-Fishery Quality, Processing, and Market Development under the ministry, Vietnam’s exports of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products to the Middle East have averaged between US$1.4 billion and US$1.5 billion annually in recent years. Key export items include fruits and vegetables, coffee, pepper, cashew nuts, and seafood.
Despite this steady trade, the Middle East currently represents only around 2 percent of Vietnam’s total global exports of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products. In the first two months of this year, export turnover to the region reached approximately US$206 million, averaging more than US$100 million per month.
However, prolonged geopolitical tensions could disrupt trade flows indirectly, particularly through transportation and logistics channels. Several shipping lines have already announced temporary suspensions or restrictions on routes to the region. At the same time, maritime insurance premiums have risen and shipping times have lengthened, increasing logistical risks for exporters.
These developments could push up costs across the entire supply chain, especially for products that rely on refrigerated containers, such as seafood and fresh produce.
“Additional transportation and insurance costs may drive up production expenses and product prices, making it more difficult for businesses to maintain exports to the region if the conflict persists,” Mr. Le Ba Anh said.
From a broader perspective, Mr. Tran Gia Long, Deputy Director General of the ministry’s Planning and Finance Department, warned that escalating geopolitical tensions could dampen global demand, thereby affecting Vietnam’s agricultural trade and the sector’s export growth targets this year.
The ministry has begun drafting contingency scenarios to prepare for different outcomes. If the conflict lasts for about one month, Vietnam’s total agricultural, forestry, and fishery export turnover could decline by roughly US$1 billion. A three-month disruption could reduce export revenues by an estimated US$3 billion to US$3.5 billion. Should the conflict persist throughout the year, trade flows to affected regions could be severely curtailed or interrupted.
To mitigate risks, officials emphasize the need for flexible market diversification and export redirection.
Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien, who chaired the briefing, noted that several major markets are showing encouraging signs in 2026. The United States, for example, has adjusted certain tariff rates, while trade barriers affecting some seafood products, including shrimp, have eased.
Expanding exports to traditional markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN member countries, the European Union, and the US could help offset the roughly 2 percent share currently destined for the Middle East should trade with the region be disrupted.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is coordinating closely with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Finance, and Vietnam’s overseas trade offices to monitor market developments and provide timely guidance to exporters. These efforts aim to help businesses adjust export plans, explore alternative markets, and sustain export growth for Vietnam’s agricultural sector in 2026.
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