Mr. Tho announced three GDP growth scenarios for 2024 at yesterday’s Vietnam Economic Pulse (VEP) forum, the third annual event with the theme ‘Science-technology promotes prosperity - Opportunities for Vietnam’.
The research team of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) projects GDP growth of 5.5 percent and two mild improvements to 6 percent and to 6.5 percent. The three GDP growth scenarios are close to the forecast of the World Bank of 5.5 percent, the International Monetary Fund of 5.8 percent and the Asian Development Bank of 6 percent.
At the forum, many experts warned about the middle-income trap. Representative of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Ramla Khalidi emphasized that technological innovation, energy transition and changes in geopolitical strategy have created historic opportunities to help Vietnam to accelerate economic transformation, penetrate new markets, maintain productivity growth at higher income levels, and avoid the middle-income trap.
Mr. Jonathan Pincus, senior economist of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), pointed out that very few countries have entered the high-income group since World War II. According to him, only 10 out of 151 non-oil exporting countries reach the average income milestone of US$20,000 per person a year. Many countries have achieved high growth rates, but few countries have maintained growth momentum long enough to narrow the gap with the United States, said Mr. Jonathan Pincus.
Through an analysis of a number of typical cases, this expert noted that Vietnam has maintained growth since 1990 and remains competitive, but only in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors. Therefore, Mr. Jonathan Pincus recommended that successful countries have invested heavily in universities, research institutes and domestic businesses noting that Vietnam's scientific community has many potential advantages.
