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Vietnam strives to maintain replacement fertility rate |
More people in a country can lead to a larger workforce which will lead to more products being produced and economic growth subsequently.
While other countries in the world with a population of 500,000 people or more have only maintained their fertility rate which means that each woman of reproductive age has an average of 2.1 children for 2-10 years, Vietnam is the only country that has so far maintained a golden population ratio and structure for 23 years, from 2000-2023.
Last but not least, Vietnam is also the only country with an 11-year population strategy from 2019 to 2030 with the goal of firmly ensuring the total population. If this population strategy is maintained by 2030, Vietnam will maintain a golden population ratio and structure for 31 years. However, the country is facing two major and lasting challenges that have been threatening the sustainable development of labor and population in the period after 2030.
According to the census on April 1, 2021, 18 provinces and cities in the Southeast and the Mekong Delta with a population of 34.9 million people, accounting for 35.4 percent of the country's population, all have a fertility rate - the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years – is less than the replacement fertility rate. This situation has been occurring since 2006.
Although the Resolution 21-NQ/TW of 2017 on population work in the new situation has identified a fundamental solution to firmly ensure the fertility of the population in Vietnam, that is, localities with a fertility rate higher than the replacement fertility rate must decrease the fertility rate and vice versa, but in reality, it didn’t take place as the Resolution. This proves that the target of fertility rate adjustment in 5/6 regions of the country has not been achieved.
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If the fertility rate in the 4/6 regions of the country had not been high enough to compensate for the low fertility rate in 2/6 regions, the Southeast Asian country would have been unable to keep the fertility rate for the past 15 years. If the fertility rate in 4/6 regions reduces according to the Resolution 21-NQ TW but the fertility rate in 2/6 regions is not high as expected from 2023 to 2030, Vietnam will not be able to maintain the fertility rate in 2030 and the following years.
A lesson that should be learnt from other countries during the past 50 years is that the more people’s income increases, the more the fertility rate falls sustainably under the replacement fertility rate. The reason is that raising children becomes a financial burden, hindering parents’ career development, so more adults don’t want to get married early and more couples want to have fewer children.
Vietnam has 44 provinces and cities with a fertility rate equal to or greater than the replacement fertility rate. Some 44 cities and provinces have 62.36 million inhabitants, equal to 63.3 percent of the country's population while the remaining 19 provinces and cities have a fertility rate lower than the replacement fertility rate with 36.14 million inhabitants, equal to 36.7 percent of the country's population according to statistic in 2021.
If the government cannot change the perception and develop policies to promote social development in considering happy families and happy people as goals equal to, or even higher than economic growth, then Vietnam will be inevitably like developed countries - the richer countries are, the more fertility in high-income countries has been declining.
Challenging development
The natural sex ratio at birth is around 105 boys per 100 girls. However, due to the patriarchy in some countries, including Vietnam, and the prevailing technique of early sex detection, the male birth rate has exceeded the natural rate. In 2006, the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam was 104.8/100 and has increased to 112/100 in recent years.
It is forecasted that Vietnam will have 1.5 million more men than women aged 15-49 by 2034 if the sex ratio at birth imbalance remains unaddressed and by 2059 Vietnam will have 2.5 million more men than women. Population experts warned this matter many years ago, requiring a serious review of 5 years of implementing the Resolution 21-NQ/TW. Each party committee, administration, business, family, and citizen need to bear responsibility for the low fertility rate which could threaten the country's sustainable development.
According to statistics, the fertility rate of Vietnam has been equal to the replacement fertility rate for more than 20 years, thanks to the remaining 4 regions of the country where the fertility rate is always higher than the replacement fertility rate compensating for the shortfalls in the Southeast and Mekong Delta regions, which always have significantly lower fertility rate.
Besides the improvement in housing conditions, medical care, and education, the cultural traditions of the Vietnamese people that value family life and grandparents' help to take care of grandchildren keep the fertility rate from decreasing in these four regions.
