Energy experts forecast electricity shortage due to increased demand

Energy experts forecast that there may still be a shortage of electricity in 2024-2025 because of an increase in consumption demand for electricity but the additional source has not yet been able to meet.
Deputy Head of the Business Department Tran Viet Nguyen answers a reporter's questions

Deputy Head of the Business Department Tran Viet Nguyen answers a reporter's questions

The Office of the Steering Committee for Energy Saving and the Center for Training and Electricity Market Development Research (ERAVCTED) under the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV) which was assigned by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to chair the Vietnam Electricity Saving Network, held a conference in Hanoi to summarize electricity saving in the dry season of 2023 and forecast some trends in the following years.

According to electricity experts, that there may still be a shortage of electricity in 2024-2025 following increased demand for energy; therefore, people must continue to promote energy saving right now to prepare response solutions. On behalf of the Electricity of Vietnam (EVN), Deputy Head of the Business Department Tran Viet Nguyen said that in the first seven months of 2023, the country's electricity production and imports increased by 1.8 percent compared to the same period last year but due to the extremely high peak consumption capacity and load plus the impact of El Nino and some thermal power plants having problems, the North and the South saw the power shortages in some peak hours.

In the last 5 months of 2023, Deputy Head Nguyen said that electricity supply could grow by 9.9 percent over the same period so electricity supply in the remaining months of this year is guaranteed.

However, Mr. Nguyen said that the power supply in the years 2024-2025 will again face difficulties and shortages due to the continued increasing load shedding. It is forecasted to increase by 9 percent per year, corresponding to an increase in capacity of about 4,000- 5,000MW per year whereas the additional power source expected to operate in 2024 is only 1,950MW and 3,770MW in 2025 mainly in the central and southern regions.

Subsequently, the North may continue to experience electricity shortage in the summer of next year, because the standby capacity of the Northern electricity system is low, and the demand for electricity in the North increases by 10 percent per year. It is forecasted that the North lacks about 420-1,770MW in June and July, 2024

According to Deputy Chief of the Office of the Steering Committee for Energy Saving cum Deputy Director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Energy Efficiency And Sustainable Development Department Trinh Quoc Vu, it is necessary to effectively implement the energy saving program and from now to start implementing solutions to prepare for the coming year to cope with the risk of power shortage in dry seasons.

EVN said that after the Prime Minister-instructed program to save electricity across the country was launched, people have practiced electricity saving and it has brought positive results. For instance, statistics conducted from May 17 to June 16 have shown that the country has saved more than 226 million kWh.

Deputy General Director of EVN Vo Quang Lam said that the sector has set goals for the period of 2023-2025 and the following years that at least 2 percent of total electricity was saved each year. Moreover, 50 percent of office buildings and 50 percent of residential houses will use self-generating and self-dissipating rooftop solar power by 2030. This is also a strategy to ensure the balance of electricity supply and demand, minimizing the risk of power shortage when the growth in electricity demand tends to be higher (9.6 percent) than economic growth.

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