With the goal of achieving double-digit growth, removing bottlenecks in the corporate bond market will not only ease the burden on bank credit but also open up a channel for medium and long-term capital flow into key sectors such as infrastructure and manufacturing.
For many years, the Vietnamese economy has relied heavily on bank credit, leading to increased liquidity pressure as credit growth outpaces deposit growth. According to the State Bank of Vietnam, the credit-to-GDP ratio is currently around 137 percent and could reach 180 percent by 2030 if other capital channels are not developed. This necessitates the expansion of alternative capital mobilization channels, with corporate bonds expected to play a key role.
Recently, statistics on corporate bond issuance have shown more positive signs. According to the Vietnam Bond Market Association, in the first quarter of 2026, businesses raised approximately VND24,800 billion through bonds, a 33 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Capital flows remained concentrated in banking and real estate, accounting for up to 90 percent of the total issuance value; the remainder went to consumer goods, industrial, and securities companies.
According to FiinRatings' forecast, if the market improves, the total value of corporate bond issuance this year could reach approximately VND800 trillion (over US$30 million). Director Le Hong Khang of Research and Analysis at FiinRatings (a credit rating agency), explains that banks are becoming more cautious in lending as credit risk increases and interest rates tend to rise. Therefore, businesses must seek alternative capital raising channels, with corporate bonds being almost an inevitable choice.
Favorable conditions are driven by three main factors such as legal reforms strengthening confidence, the need for increased Tier 2 capital for banks and the shift in financing for large-scale infrastructure projects from credit to bonds due to credit growth limitations.
Capital market imbalance raises risks, drives push for corporate bonds
According to FiinRatings statistics, capital flows are concentrated in real estate and credit institutions, while the manufacturing and trade sectors account for only about 9 percent. Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Senior National Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), assessed that this imbalance in structure not only increases systemic risk but also limits the role of the capital market.
The current capital market structure does not match development needs, especially as the government promotes public investment. Public investment is expected to reach 8 percent-10 percent of GDP annually, equivalent to an additional need of US$10 billion-US$20 billion.
However, infrastructure financing still relies primarily on the budget and bank credit, with very little coming from corporate bonds. The market lacks long-term investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, along with various risk hedging tools and supporting ecosystems such as credit ratings and advisory services. Therefore, perfecting the legal framework, expanding the investor base, and developing intermediary institutions are key conditions for corporate bonds to play their role as a medium- and long-term capital channel.
In addition, Ms. Duong Kim Anh, Investment Director of Vietcombank Fund Management Company, commented that the market is lacking a supply of high-quality bonds, especially in the manufacturing sector. Funds currently mainly invest in listed bonds, a large portion of which are bank bonds, leaving very limited room for investment in other sectors.
Nguyen Tri Hieu, a banking and finance expert, believes that a sustainable financial system requires a balance between banks and the capital market, rather than over-reliance on bank credit. Therefore, in order to increase budget funding for key projects, authorities should expand the corporate bond market and promote the participation of long-term investment funds and non-bank financial institutions. Completing the legal framework for instruments such as infrastructure bonds or financial structures tailored to the specific characteristics of infrastructure will be an effective solution to diversify funding sources.
