Slight price increase, but challenges remain
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s rice exports in February 2025 were estimated at 560,000 tons, valued at US$288.2 million. In the first two months of the year, total exports reached 1.1 million tons, worth $613 million—up 5.9 percent in volume but down 13.6 percent in value compared to the same period in 2024.
Since late 2024, rice prices have been on a sharp downward trend. At the start of 2025, exports stagnated, and prices continued to fall as global supply increased while demand from major markets like the Philippines and Indonesia weakened. These countries had stockpiled enough rice in 2024 and were waiting for further price drops before resuming imports.
The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice export market, accounting for 38.6 percent of total exports, followed by Ivory Coast (15.9 percent) and Ghana (12.3 percent). However, exports to the Philippines fell by 35.5 percent year-on-year, while shipments to Ivory Coast surged 8.6 times and Ghana increased 4.1 times. Notably, exports to Turkey saw a record-breaking 600.7-fold increase, whereas exports to Cambodia dropped 39.3 percent.
At the meeting, Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the National Authority for Agro – Forestry – Fishery Quality, Processing and Market Development under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, said Vietnam’s rice cultivation area in 2025 is projected to be 7.03 million hectares, with an expected yield of 6.16 tons per hectare, bringing total output to 43.14 million tons—down 323,000 tons from 2024.
Experts point to oversupply as the main reason for falling rice export prices. After two years of strict controls, India has eased its export restrictions, increasing global supply and intensifying competition among exporting countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan.
Vietnam’s rice production, procurement, processing, and export systems remain fragile, leaving businesses and farmers vulnerable to market fluctuations.
As of March, Vietnam’s rice export prices have edged up slightly, but market conditions remain unstable, particularly regarding selling prices, signaling a potentially challenging year for the rice industry.
Crackdown on price manipulation to stabilize rice exports
Amid market volatility, Mr. Ngo Cong Thuc, Vice Chairman of the People's Committee of An Giang Province, urged the Government and central ministries to attract large corporations and businesses to invest in agricultural production and consumption, creating a stable supply chain. He also called for stronger incentives to encourage investment in agriculture and facilitate long-term export contracts with international partners.
Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), proposed that the State Bank of Vietnam offer businesses access to preferential loans, increase credit limits, and extend repayment periods to help enterprises store rice and avoid panic selling when prices drop. VFA also recommended that the Ministry of Industry and Trade establish a minimum export price of $500 per ton (FOB) under Decree No.107/2018/ND-CP. Additionally, stricter oversight is needed to prevent speculative trading by exporters uninvolved in production and processing.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan confirmed ongoing efforts to expand export markets and shift focus toward high-quality rice. The ministry is also considering activating a minimum export price while implementing Decree No.01/2025/ND-CP, which amends Decree No.107/2018/ND-CP on rice export regulations.
Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy instructed relevant agencies to closely monitor market trends, intensify trade promotion, and support enterprises in prioritizing exports during peak production periods. He also urged relevant authorities to expedite tax refunds for exporters, extend credit limits, and roll out financial aid packages for businesses capable of stockpiling rice when prices are low.
At the local level, the minister emphasized the need to maintain production schedules, particularly during peak harvest seasons. He also called for an expansion of the “Sustainable Development of One Million Hectares of High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice Linked to Green Growth in the Mekong Delta” initiative. The ministry will work with other agencies to inspect and penalize price manipulation, market exploitation, and speculative hoarding.
Minister Do Duc Duy underscored the importance of accurately assessing global supply and demand imbalances. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will consolidate recommendations from the meeting and submit an official telegram to the Government on regulating the rice market to ensure stable supply-demand and support sustainable export.
