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Illustrative image (Photo: SGGP) |
According to the VPI’s prediction, which was given with the support of the petrol price forecasting model using Machine Learning, the retail price of RON95 may increase from VND197 per litre to VND22,110 (US$0.94) per litre, while the price of E5 biofuel is forecast to rise by VND5 per litre or remain unchanged at VND20,870 per litre.
Meanwhile, the price of diesel is predicted to rise to VND18,189 per litre, and that of kerosene may be pushed up by VND205 per litre to VND18,025 per litre.
Meanwhile, the price of mazut is predicted to fall by VND27 per litre to 1VND14,683 per kilo. The VPI also predicted that management agencies may extract about VND300 from each litre of petrol products for the fund for petrol price stabilization.
In the world market, on June 19 morning, the price of Brent oil fell by 68 cents to US$75.93 per barrel, while the WTI oil price fell by 59 cents to be traded at US$71.19 per barrel. Global crude oil prices dropped due to concerns about a slow recovery of the Chinese economy despite the impact of OPEC production cuts from last week and a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the US.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand in 2023 by 2.4 million barrels per day to a record high of 102.3 million barrels per day. However, the IEA forecast that global oil demand will decline by 860,000 barrels per day in 2024 due to unfavourable economic growth predictions. Global oil supply is forecast to increase slightly to 101.3 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024.
Wood Mackenzie revised its 2023 average Brent oil price forecast from VND84.7 per barrel to US$84.3 per barrel. Goldman Sachs also forecast that the oil price at the end of 2023 will decrease by nearly 10 percent, of which the average Brent oil price will reach US$86 each barrel and the average WTI oil price will reach US$8 per barrel in December 2023.
At the same time, JPMorgan also lowered its oil price forecast for 2023 with Brent falling from US$90 per barrel to US$81 per barrel, and WTI dropping from US$84 per barrel to US$76 per barrel. In 2024, JPMorgan reduced its forecast for Brent oil price from US$98 per barrel to US$83 per barrel and WTI oil price from US$94 per barrel to US$79 per barrel.
VPI experts held that in the next few weeks, petrol prices will continuously fluctuate when inflation data and interest rate adjustments are announced.
In case the US Federal Reserve (FED) decides to keep interest rates unchanged and the US Department of Energy continues to look for opportunities to buy additional oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the declining trend in oil prices may be reversed. Accordingly, VPI experts forecast that Brent oil prices in 2023 will be traded at an average price of US$82 per barrel.
