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Statisticians also pointed out that the sharp increase in gasoline prices was the culprit of the problem.
According to economic analysts, in less than half a year, the average CPI has been 2.25 percent, and while the uptrend is still continuing, the target threshold of 4 percent requires close management efforts. Forecasts of international organizations also suggested that Vietnam's inflation in 2022 will be around 3.8 percent - 4 percent. There are even forecasts that give a figure of 4.5 percent, depending on the price of crude oil and the types of input materials for production.
Specifically, according to May’s statistics, among 11 main groups of consumer goods and services, 10 groups of goods increased in price compared to the previous month whereas only one group of products was discounted. The food and foodservice groups increased by 0.27 percent over the previous month, causing the overall CPI to increase by 0.09 percentage points. The beverage and tobacco group increased by 0.33 percent while the garment, hat, and footwear group increased by 0.18 percent, the education group increased by 0.17 percent and the group of equipment and household appliances increased by 0.22 percent. The group of other goods and services increased by 0.19 percent. The group of culture, entertainment, and tourism increased by 0.74 percent over the previous month.
However, mainly due to the influence of petroleum price adjustments according to world fuel prices, the transportation group had the most significant price increase, up to 2.34 percent, causing the overall CPI to increase by 0.23 percentage points. . In this basket of goods for calculating CPI, the only groups that have reduced prices are housing and construction materials, down 0.13 percent from the previous month.
Also in May, the index of industrial production (IIP) was estimated to increase by 4 percent month-on-month and by 10.4 percent over the same period last year. Notably, the industrial production index in the first 5 months of 2022 compared with the same period last year increased in 61 localities, showing a clear recovery trend of the economy.
Localities with a large industrial scale have positive growth trends, such as the Southern Province of Binh Duong with an increase of 9 percent, the Central Province of Ha Tinh increased by 6.9 percent, Ho Chi Minh City increased by 6.5 percent, the northern provinces of Hai Duong, Thai Nguyen, and Quang Ninh increased by 3.6 percent, 3 percent, and 2.3 percent respectively, the Mekong Delta provinces of Vinh Long and Long An increased by 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.
Generally, in the first 5 months of 2022, the industrial production index increased by 8.3 percent over the same period last year. Although it has not yet returned to the pre-Covid-19 increase when the 5-month IIP in the years 2018-2019 increased by 10.3 percent and 9.5 percent, an 8.3 percent increase is still a positive number.
