According to updates from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) on January 15, the price of 5-percent broken rice has fallen to $434 per ton, lower than Thailand's rice price of $479 per ton, marking the lowest level in two years.
The highest recorded export rice price for Vietnam was in August 2013, reaching $700 per ton on August 10, 2023, the highest since 2008. Compared to the current price of $434 per ton in January 2025, the rice export price has dropped by $266 per ton, a decline of about 38 percent.
The main reason for this price decline is India lifting its rice export restrictions after two years of a temporary ban, leading to an increased global supply and creating competitive pressure for other exporting countries, including Vietnam.
Currently, demand from major importers like the Philippines and Indonesia is slowing down as these countries have sufficient rice reserves in 2024 and are waiting for further price drops before resuming purchases.
In terms of export volume, Vietnam exported over 9 million tons of rice in 2024, earning $5.75 billion, a 13 percent increase in volume and a 23 percent increase in value compared to the previous year. However, projections for 2025 suggest that Vietnam's rice exports could face challenges due to abundant global supply and increasing competition from other exporting countries.
For domestic paddy prices, fresh paddy prices in the Mekong Delta are entering the 2025 winter-spring harvest season in January, with IR50404 rice priced at VND6,100 per kilogram (depending on quality). However, processed and packaged rice sold to consumers remains high, with retail prices at supermarkets and agencies ranging from VND20,000 to VND30,000 per kilogram.
