Yesterday, at the conference to deploy the 2025 population work plan organized by the Department of Population under the Ministry of Health in Hanoi, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong stated that 2024 is the third consecutive year that the fertility rate in Vietnam has continuously decreased at a rapid rate.
Vietnam's fertility rate has experienced a significant decline, falling from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.91 children per woman in 2024. This alarming trend, which now falls below the critical replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, requires immediate attention and effective policy interventions.
The Health Deputy Minister said that the current fertility rate of 1.91 children per woman represents the lowest level in Vietnam's history, and the Deputy Minister of Health anticipates a further decline in the coming years. Despite improvements, the gender imbalance at birth remains a concern, with an estimated ratio of 112 boys to 100 girls in 2024.
Deputy Director Pham Vu Hoang of the Department of Population observed that over the past two decades, urban areas with higher socioeconomic development and urbanization levels have experienced a significant decline in fertility rates. In 2024, this trend continued, with the fertility rate in urban areas dropping to 1.67 children per woman, a decrease from the 1.7 children per woman recorded in 2023.
Meanwhile, in rural areas, the fertility rate is always higher than the replacement level, at 2.2-2.3 children/woman, but in 2023, for the first time, the fertility rate dropped to 2.07 children and in 2024, the fertility rate of rural women was 2.08 children.
The continued economic growth, rapid urbanization, and increasing global integration in Vietnam are contributing factors to a significant decline in the country's fertility rate. The decline in the country's fertility rate has left severe consequences; for instance, a shrinking workforce which will inevitably strain economic growth and development. Meanwhile, the rapidly aging population will exert significant pressure on the social security system and increase the cost of elder care.
To address the challenges outlined above and meet future population and development needs, the draft Population Law proposed by the Ministry of Health includes several key measures. These include ensuring the replacement birth rate, revising disciplinary regulations to avoid penalizing families with three or more children, and simultaneously promoting policies that encourage couples to have two children.
Additionally, the draft emphasizes providing support for workers with young children to alleviate concerns about childbearing, particularly in regions with low birth rates.
Many regions are implementing strategies and policies aimed at promoting childbirth to achieve a sustainable replacement birth rate. These initiatives also emphasize enhancing population quality and capitalizing on the demographic dividend to alleviate the pressures on national development and social security.
Nonetheless, population experts assert that fluctuations in fertility rates are significantly shaped by reproductive decisions and are influenced by socio-economic conditions. Therefore, addressing population challenges requires a focus on more effective investments in human resources, economic development, and social security.
