In particular, the dual challenge of accomplishing major political tasks while achieving an 8-percent growth target was highlighted as a critical factor in the final year of the 2021-2025 five-year plan.
Challenging but rewarding
Experts have provided an overview of the country's socio-economic situation in 2024 and the outlook for 2025.
According to Dr. Phan Duc Hieu, Permanent Member of the National Assembly's Economic Committee, the overall socio-economic situation in 2024 showed positive recovery, achieving many significant and commendable results. The Government announced that all 15 key targets for 2024 were met and exceeded, particularly the growth target. It can be said that 2025 is a year of great importance, marking several milestones in the country’s development and playing a crucial role in achieving the growth goals for the 2020-2025 period. The Party, NA, and Government have designated this year as one of acceleration, breakthrough, and demonstrating a strong, determined, and innovative spirit—reflected not only in mindset, thinking, actions, and organizational structure but also in the content of tasks and specific solutions.
Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, Former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said that a standout feature of 2025 is that it coincides with several significant national anniversaries: the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, now the Socialist Republic of Vietnam; the 95th anniversary of the Communist Party of Vietnam; and the 50th anniversary of the National Reunification Day. In addition, there is a substantial workload ahead in preparing for the 14th Party Congress and the 16th NA elections.
Therefore, meeting all these goals pose a significant challenge. Particularly, the ongoing efforts to drive reforms and eliminate institutional bottlenecks must be highlighted. Never before have leaders demonstrated such strong determination to reform and streamline the State apparatus to foster more robust national development. 2025 will likely be a challenging but rewarding year. It will also be a crucial time to lay the groundwork for the country’s leap into the new era.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long, Former Director of the Institute for Market and Price Research under the Ministry of Finance, stated that Vietnam's economic growth prospects for 2025 are viewed positively by international organizations, supported by strong domestic factors and improvements across several key sectors. United Overseas Bank (UOB) forecasts Vietnam's GDP to grow by 6.6 percent, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects a 6.2-percent growth, the highest in Southeast Asia.
The NA’s resolution sets a GDP growth target of 6.5-7 percent, with hopes to achieve 7-7.5 percent under favorable conditions. In 2025, there are many important political tasks, including the reform and restructuring of the State apparatus, a difficult yet essential process. However, he believes that policies to reduce waste and streamline the State apparatus will lead to positive changes by improving the investment environment, attracting foreign capital, and promoting sustainable development. Streamlining the apparatus will not only reduce overlaps but also improve management efficiency, save the budget, increase transparency, and build investor confidence. Therefore, despite the challenges, these reforms must be carried out.
Ensuring social welfare
Dr. Phan Duc Hieu highlighted that alongside the restructuring of the administrative apparatus, efforts to improve the business environment must be pursued more decisively. A shift in mindset is needed, moving from management and supervision to encouraging and facilitating development through legal reforms aimed at simplifying and reducing cumbersome, overlapping regulations and procedures. Economic management and operations should also be more strongly decentralized to local authorities.
Furthermore, creating a conducive environment to promote the private sector as the main driver of growth is vital. Reforms in the scientific research system must also be strengthened to empower scientists to contribute and realize their potential. These solutions must, of course, be implemented through clear policies and practical measures.
According to Associate Professor Dr. Ngo Tri Long, to foster growth, the Government should accelerate public investment disbursement, particularly for key national projects, to stimulate the economy. Additionally, the Government should continue policies to support businesses, such as tax cuts, fee reductions, and lower interest rates, to reduce production costs and encourage business activities. Administrative reforms, simplifying procedures, and removing barriers for businesses are essential to create a favorable environment for developing business and production activities.
To ensure social welfare and stability in people's lives, the Government must strengthen social security measures, assist unemployed workers, the poor, and vulnerable groups, thus maintaining social order amid economic challenges. New growth drivers, including digital transformation, green transition, and the development of high-tech industries such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing, must also be "reenergized" to boost labor productivity and enhance economic competitiveness.
The societal cost of restructuring the administrative system—not just in terms of the budget—will likely be substantial. Additionally, the new structure will require time to stabilize. Could this potentially impact GDP growth in 2025?
Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung said that reforming the State apparatus aims to create a more dynamic market that offsets the initial expenses. Frankly, there may be short-term challenges, but such sacrifices are a necessary price to pay for "operating" on a bloated, inefficient system to build a leaner administration with no room for incompetence or corruption. However, it’s vital to examine the underlying drivers of growth closely.
In terms of domestic investment, data from the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period last year indicates a 0.5-percent decline in the number of new businesses, stagnant registered capital, and an 8-percent decrease in the workforce. Total additional registered capital in the economy dropped by 7.5 percent compared to 2023.
Meanwhile, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenues grew more slowly, highlighting the lack of a recovery in consumer confidence. Economic growth has yet to translate into tangible income improvements for households. Moreover, the economy remains overly reliant on foreign enterprises, driven primarily by low-value-added exports.
Therefore, while fulfilling critical political objectives, Vietnam must not lose focus on the imperative of driving economic growth, he added.
