Rather than broadly easing credit conditions for the real estate sector, the State Bank of Vietnam's latest policy sends a clear message: prioritize lending for social housing, industrial infrastructure, and investment attraction while continuing to control speculative risks.
Central bank eases restrictions, but selectively
The State Bank of Vietnam's decision to allow 25 commercial banks to exclude additional lending to social housing projects and industrial parks-export processing zones from their real estate credit balances when calculating 2026 credit growth limits is viewed as a necessary and highly targeted measure.
From a broader perspective, this relaxation does not represent a loosening of oversight. Credit institutions are still required to ensure that real estate lending growth does not exceed their overall credit growth rate.
According to lecturer Chau Dinh Linh of Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking, the significance of the policy lies not in quantitative expansion but in the way capital is directed toward specific purposes. Rather than applying a uniform approach to the entire real estate sector, regulators have differentiated among segments to avoid creating bottlenecks in areas capable of generating long-term growth.
From a market perspective, analysts at Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities believe industrial real estate will be the biggest beneficiary. The new mechanism addresses a key financing constraint for industrial infrastructure projects, which typically require medium- to long-term capital and often face funding pressure when banks approach their real estate lending limits.
The additional credit is also expected to accelerate land clearance, infrastructure development, and Vietnam's capacity to attract foreign direct investment as global capital flows continue shifting toward the country.
For social housing, the policy is expected to provide stronger momentum to address the urgent housing needs of low-income residents. Mirae Asset analysts noted that social housing loans currently account for only about 0.2 percent of total outstanding credit in the economy. Directing credit toward developers with projects already under implementation could help accelerate construction and shorten delivery timelines.
Capital costs remain a bottleneck
Data from the State Bank of Vietnam's Region 2 branch, covering Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai Province, show that by the end of the first quarter of 2026, outstanding real estate loans accounted for approximately 27.5 percent of total credit in the region, up 2.34 percent from the end of 2025 and 21.39 percent year-on-year. In Ho Chi Minh City alone, real estate loans represented 28.61 percent of total outstanding credit.
Notably, loans for home purchases intended for owner occupancy remained at around 66 percent of total real estate lending, indicating that capital continues to be directed largely toward genuine housing demand rather than speculative activity.
Regarding the VND145 trillion social housing credit package, Tran Thi Ngoc Lien, Deputy Director of the State Bank's Region 2 branch, said four projects in Ho Chi Minh City had received disbursements totaling more than VND423 billion, while three projects in Dong Nai Province had gained access to funding.
Despite these encouraging figures, access to financing remains challenging in practice.
Director Le Huu Nghia of Le Thanh Company said that although social housing is classified as a priority sector, obtaining loans remains difficult. While the VND145 trillion package offers advantages such as longer loan tenors, lower interest rates, and exemption from credit growth limits, the underlying issue remains the cost of capital.
To provide loans for social housing projects, banks must mobilize their own funds rather than rely on state budget resources. When funding costs remain high, offering long-term loans at a preferential rate of 6.1 percent per year makes it difficult for banks to maintain profitability. In other words, banks could incur losses, Director Le Huu Nghia said.
He added that some social housing developers are willing to borrow at commercial interest rates to secure project financing but are still unable to obtain loans because banks remain concerned about legal and regulatory risks.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Chairman Le Hoang Chau of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association proposed that regulators allocate annual credit growth quotas instead of quarterly limits. He also called for more flexible credit expansion during the second quarter to support economic growth targets.
Beyond social housing, Chairman Le Hoang Chau argued that credit should also be reasonably expanded for affordable commercial housing projects to better meet genuine housing demand among the population.
Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV: Restructuring capital flows
By the end of 2025, real estate loans are estimated to reach VND4.7 million billion, a 36 percent increase compared to the same period, while total industry credit only increased by over 19 percent. By February 2026 alone, real estate business loans had increased by 11.7 percent, accompanied by a non-performing loan ratio of 2.22 percent.
In the context of real estate credit growing faster than the overall system, control is necessary to prevent risks. The essence of the current policy is not to tighten real estate credit but to restructure real estate credit capital flows, directing funds towards the real consumer segment and minimizing flow into the speculative segment.
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