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At the seminar |
At the seminar to announce the Report ‘Vietnam's Economy in the first 6 months and Prospects for the last 6 months of 2023’ organized by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) yesterday morning, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of the CIEM Synthetic Research Committee, outlined three growth scenarios for the country in 2023.
The CIEM Synthetic Research Committee head said that the first scenario assumes that the world economic situation continue to remain consistent with the assessment of international organizations and that Vietnam will maintain the same policy efforts as in the second half of 2021-2022.
Accordingly, the country’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.34 percent in 2023 but exports in 2023 will decrease by 5.64 percent. The average consumer price index (CPI) in 2023 will increase by 3.43 percent and the trade balance will see a surplus of US$9.1 billion.
In the second scenario, the assumptions in scenario 1 related to world economic factors are kept the same, but there will be some adjustments on monetary easing - the policy in which a central bank lowers interest rates and deposit ratios to make credit more easily available - and more positive fiscal situation in Vietnam.
Accordingly, the country’s GDP growth is forecasted at 5.72 percent in 2023. Exports in 2023 will decrease by 3.66 percent, while the average CPI in 2023 will increase by 3.87 percent and trade balance will possibly reach a surplus of $10.3 billion.
With the third scenario, it assumes that some more positive changes in the world economic context such as recovering growth, significantly reduced supply chain disruptions, lower inflation in the US, more favorable weather andVietnam’s reform will help to achieve maximum results in disbursement and absorption of public investment and credit, improving the business environment and labor productivity, promoting and make investments more efficient.
Accordingly, the country’s GDP growth is forecast at 6.46 percent in 2023. Exports in 2023 are predicted to decrease by 2.17 percent, while the average CPI in 2023 will increase by 4.39 percent and the trade balance will reach a surplus of $6.8 billion.
If Vietnam is lucky enough, the third scenario will become a reality. On the other hand, in this scenario, inflation is up to 4.39 percent - still lower than the set goal approved by the National Assembly of 4.5 percent, said Mr. Duong.
At the workshop, the delegates exchanged and recommended orientations and related policy solutions. Macroeconomic stability, control of inflation, and major balances in association with reform of the micro-economic foundation like business environment and competition for many years will be high on the government’s list of priorities. The old solutions will no longer be enough to help the economy achieve its growth goals in the medium and long term, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) Vo Tri Thanh emphasized.
Previously, at the regular Government meeting on July 4, the Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasted the context and situation in the last months of the year, and updated the growth scenario for the third quarter and the whole year of 2023 with two scenarios.
In the first scenario 1, the Ministry foretold full-year growth is expected to reach 6 percent, while growth in the third quarter and the fourth quarter was 6.8 percent and 9 percent, respectively. For the last 6 months, the country’s growth will reach 8.0 percent.
In the second scenario, the Ministry supposed full-year growth to reach 6.5 percent, while growth in the third quarter and the fourth quarter will reach 7.4 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively. In general, growth in the last 6 months of the year is likely to reach 8.9 percent.
